Something bursts forth to fill the gap

Agriculture in Frederick, and specifically local produce, is an interesting case study in possibility.

There is plenty of viable agricultural land in the county, some being used and much not. The economics of farming are such that for most farms the best bet is on large fields of commodities like soybeans, corn and hay. Some farms maintain success as vegetable producers, but its rare and requires specialized marketing like farmer's markets, this local organic(!) farm and this local orchard that are getting it done. The bottom line is that produce farms in this area depend on local markets, and to some extent tourist purchases.

The good news is that by all accounts, the Frederick market has demand for just this kind of local produce. Consumers want the produce, and many have proven they will pay a little extra for local produce. Of course, American consumers want something most of all and that's convenience, which leads us to the bad news.

The bad news is that since not enough people are buying local produce through existing sales channels, farmers aren't provided incentive to bet on growing more produce. Since not enough farmers grow produce for local markets, there are only a few retail options and there are no guarantees that what you want is what they got.

See how that gets in the way of the convenience thing?

For what it's worth, the farmer's markets and various local agriculture promotions do a great job. So far they haven't been of sufficient scale to kick start a market.

But, do you see how the elements for a new system are mostly in place, and that what may come is some innovation that gets us over the humps? The possibility is there for consumers to buy up enough local produce to persuade more farmers to enter the market and more fresh options will become available through more outlets. A few new jobs get created here and there.

Ultimately more of the money we pay for food stays here and gets spent here. Again and again.


Questions:

What will the businesses that distribute local produce look like? Will it be an against all odds year round mega farmer's market, or the existing markets beefed up, or some kind of network of CSAs? Will some entrepreneur figure out a new way to get it done or will some big chain find a way to get it started?